A Dynamic Model of U.S. Ferrous Scrap Steel Prices
Principal Investigators: Frank Giarratani, Jean-Francois Richard, Mehmet Ali Soytas
This research presents and applies a dynamic model of monthly U.S ferrous scrap prices for the period of 1990 to 2010. Our analysis takes into account the nonlinear reaction of price changes to "excess demand" and addresses the challenge of forecasting in a market where long-standing trends are disrupted by dramatic changes in international demand. We bring modern statistical techniques to bear on analysis in a forecasting environment long dominated by predictions based on the immediate experience of industry practitioners.
A Dynamic Model of U.S. Scrap Steel Prices